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Your Algorithm · Market brief
Leon County, Florida · September 2026
Tree service marketLeon County, FL · Tallahassee10 ZIP codesPublic records, pulled 12 Sep 2026

Seven of every ten storm reports in Leon County describe a tree coming down. 64,000 homeowners live under that canopy.

Tallahassee is the most tree-struck market we have measured, and no contractor of ours is running it. This brief lays out what the county looks like ZIP by ZIP, who is already competing for it, and exactly what a week with us would look like for the company that takes it.

122,597
Households in the county
ACS 2020–24
64,446
Owner-occupied homes, 53% of all occupied
ACS 2020–24
458
Storm reports with trees or limbs down, 2015–2025
NOAA Storm Events
105
Tree companies we found based in the county
Our list, 12 Sep 2026

The short version

  • Trees come down here more than anywhere else we track. Of 639 National Weather Service storm events logged for Leon County from 2015 to 2025, 458 describe trees or limbs down and 111 describe a tree landing on a house, vehicle, fence or power line. That is 15 tree-down reports per 10,000 residents, double Charleston or Savannah. Sixteen tornadoes, ten named tropical systems, and about 44 wind events a year.
  • The canopy is old and the houses sit in it. 72,139 of the county's 137,793 housing units were built before 1990. The city adopted an Urban Forest Master Plan in 2018 to manage a canopy that reaches over almost every neighborhood north of the interstate.
  • The homes are worth the call in the right ZIPs. Median owner-occupied value is $301,800 countywide, but Killearn, Bradfordville, Buck Lake and Southwood run $320,000 to $432,000 with incomes of $81,000 to $129,000. Our $500 minimum job is a routine ticket there. We would not text the student ZIP around the universities, where only 13% of households own.
  • The competition is thin online. Of 105 tree companies we located in the county, 57 publish no website we could find and another 11 have sites that fail to load or sit on a parked domain. Only 36 publish an email address. 1 national or franchise brand is present; the rest are owner-operators.
  • The territory is open. Leon County ranked sixth in the national screen we ran in August for counties shaped like our best-performing market. We run one contractor per ZIP at a time and nobody holds Leon County with us today. Whoever signs first gets the county's ZIPs exclusively for as long as they run.

Every figure on this page comes from a public record or from our own operating rules, and the source for each is listed at the bottom. Nothing here is a projection of what you would earn.

What the county looks like

Leon County had 292,198 residents at the 2020 census and an estimated 299,048 by 2025. Tallahassee is the only incorporated city and holds two thirds of the population; Bradfordville, Woodville, Chaires, Capitola, Fort Braden and Miccosukee are the unincorporated communities around it. The state government and two universities make the workforce unusually steady for a Florida market, and the owner-occupied homes cluster in the northeast quadrant.

$301,800
Median value, owner-occupied homes
ACS 2020–24 · FL $359,000 · US $332,700
$66,287
Median household income
ACS 2020–24 · FL $74,568 · US $80,734
52%
Housing units built before 1990
72,139 of 137,793 · ACS 2020–24
67,066
Detached single-family homes
49% of all units · ACS 2020–24
+67%
Typical home value change, Jul 2016 to Jul 2026
Zillow ZHVI $177,873 → $296,441
667 sq mi
Land area, one city and six communities
Census / Wikipedia

Owner-occupied homes

Median home value (Census)

Median household income

Chatham County, Georgia is Savannah, a market we already run. Alachua is Gainesville, the other Florida university county. Duval is Jacksonville. All Census figures are American Community Survey 2020–2024 five-year estimates.

Home values are up two thirds in ten years and have held through the 2025 cooling

Zillow's typical home value for Leon County was $177,873 in July 2016 and $296,441 in July 2026. Jacksonville and Gainesville rose faster and have fallen back further since 2024; Tallahassee, with its government payroll, has flattened rather than dropped. A homeowner with a $300,000 house and a 70-foot pine over the roof protects the roof first.

Typical home value, July of each year

Zillow Home Value Index, all homes, smoothed and seasonally adjusted, county level. Values are the 35th to 65th percentile "typical" home. Click a county to add or remove it.

Eleven years of storm reports, and trees in seven of every ten

We pulled every National Weather Service storm event logged for Leon County from January 2015 to the end of the 2025 file. There were 639, and 489 of them were thunderstorm or high wind. Reading the narratives, 458 describe trees or limbs down and 111 describe a tree landing on a structure, vehicle or power line. The 10 May 2024 outbreak put two EF2 tornadoes through the county, each carrying a $92 million property-damage estimate in the NOAA record; Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Helene in 2024 both passed within reach.

Storm reports mentioning trees or limbs down, by year

Trees or limbs downLanded on a structure, vehicle or lineNamed tropical system

NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, county and forecast-zone entries named Leon, Florida. Tree counts come from reading each event narrative for "tree", "limb" or "branch"; structure counts add a mention of a house, roof, vehicle, fence, power line or similar. Named systems are those the narratives name. Hover a bar for the year's detail.

639
Storm events logged, 2015–2025
Alachua FL 321 · Escambia FL 184
458
Reports describing trees or limbs down
15.4 per 10,000 residents · Charleston SC 7.1 · Chatham GA 8.1
489
Wind events, about 44 a year
Thunderstorm, high and strong wind
16
Tornadoes, including two EF2 on 10 May 2024
Named: Hermine, Irma, Michael, Nestor, Fred, Mindy, Nicole, Idalia, Debby, Helene

The county, ZIP by ZIP

These are the ten residential ZIP codes we would draw territory from, plus three across the county line that a Tallahassee contractor usually serves anyway. Pick a measure and sort. The bar is each ZIP's share of the largest value in the column.

American Community Survey 2020–2024 five-year estimates by ZIP Code Tabulation Area, via Census Reporter. 32304 is the university district; its 13% ownership rate is why we would leave it out of a first tier. The three county-line ZIPs are Wakulla, Gadsden and Jefferson counties respectively.

Who is already working the county

We built a list of every tree service, arborist and stump-grinding company we could locate with a Leon County base, from company websites, the Better Business Bureau, industry directories and federal carrier registrations. We found 105. The Census Bureau's 2023 business count shows 128 landscaping-services establishments in the county, the category tree services file under, so our list is most of the field but not all of it. Their contact details stay with us; what matters for you is the shape of the field.

Where they are based

ZIP of the published business address. 23 companies publish no address.

How reachable they are online

Working website24
Website that failed to load, expired certificate or parked domain11
No website found anywhere57
Registered carrier, web presence not checked13
Publishes an email address36
Phone only69

National or franchise brands in the county: Bartlett Tree Experts - Tallahassee. Everyone else is a local owner-operator, and Of the 92 companies whose web presence we checked, 74% are either invisible or broken online. A homeowner who texts back gets an answer from whoever answers first.

What a week with us looks like

We do one thing for tree contractors: we text homeowners in your ZIPs, qualify the ones who reply, and put a quote appointment on your calendar that a person has checked. The week runs on a fixed rhythm, and the numbers below are our operating targets, not a promise of results.

Sunday
2:30 pm
Campaign launches into your approved ZIPs. Nothing goes out without a named owner signing off.
Monday
4
Cumulative target of booked, verified appointments per tier by end of day. Billing for the week is due.
Tuesday
8
Every reply answered inside a five-minute target, day and evening. Sub-$500 jobs are set aside, not booked.
Wednesday
12
Each booking checked by a person against the conversation, the address and your calendar.
Thursday
16
Pacing reviewed against target; text volume adjusted if behind.
Friday
20
Week's count read. Under 15 triggers a Saturday recovery send.
Saturday
Recovery
Extra send sized to the gap, 1,250 texts per missing appointment. Bookings still count to this week.

What one appointment is

A homeowner in your ZIPs who replied, described work with at least $500 of potential, gave an address we could place, and took a time on your calendar that a human verified.

What it costs

$1,500 per tier per week, due Monday. A tier is one protected county-based territory with the data, texting, qualification, booking and verification bundled. No per-lead fees.

What we have seen

Across our current contractors, about 20 quote appointments per contractor per week is the observed average and roughly 95% of booked homeowners are there when the estimator arrives, by our owners' count. Both are averages, not commitments.

What the yield looks like

Our operating average is one booked, verified, qualified appointment for every 1,250 texts sent. Pacing decisions during the week are made on that number.

What we promise, and what we refuse to

The contractors who stay with us are the ones who heard this part first.

We promise

  • An opportunity to bid: a willing homeowner, a real address in your territory, a time on your calendar, checked by a person.
  • Your ZIPs are yours alone while you run with us. We never text the same ZIP for two contractors at the same time.
  • Nothing is sent in your name without a named owner of ours approving it first.
  • Every appointment carries its evidence: the conversation, the qualification and the verification record.

We do not promise

  • A job, a close rate, or revenue. The bid is yours to win.
  • A fixed number of appointments. Twenty a week is what we have seen on average, not what we guarantee.
  • That a homeowner will always show. About 95% do by our count; some will not.
  • A hold on your ZIPs after you stop. Exclusivity lasts exactly as long as you run.

What this brief did not cover

We did not test where any individual company ranks in local search, count reviews, price the market, or examine the City of Tallahassee and Leon County tree ordinances and permitting, all of which matter to a bid. We did not survey homeowners. The competitor count is companies we could find from public sources on one day; the Census count of 128 landscaping establishments says there are crews we missed. Census ZIP figures are five-year estimates with margins of error that widen in small ZIPs. Storm counts depend on what the Weather Service logged and how its narratives were written.

What we would do next, with your agreement: draw the ZIP set for your first tier from the table above, starting with 32312, 32309, 32308, 32311 and 32317, run your existing web presence through the same checks we ran on the field, and put a launch date on the calendar.

Where every number came from

  1. Households, owner-occupancy, home values, incomes, year built, structure type: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020–2024 five-year estimates, tables B01003, B11001, B25001, B25003, B25077, B19013, B25034, B25024, B25035, retrieved through the Census Reporter API on 12 September 2026, for Leon County, Tallahassee, its ZCTAs, Florida, the United States, and Alachua, Duval, Chatham and Charleston counties.
  2. Population 2020 and 2025 estimate, land area, communities: U.S. Census Bureau decennial count and Population Estimates Program as summarized on Wikipedia's Leon County page, read 12 September 2026. Urban Forest Master Plan: City of Tallahassee planning pages, read 12 September 2026.
  3. Typical home values, July 2016 to July 2026: Zillow Research, Zillow Home Value Index, county-level file "County_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month", downloaded 11 September 2026.
  4. Storm events: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, detail files for 2015 through 2025 (file versions dated March to August 2026), filtered to Florida entries whose county or zone name contains "Leon", with the same method applied to Alachua and Escambia counties, and to Charleston SC and Chatham GA on 11 September, for comparison.
  5. Landscaping establishments: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2023, NAICS 561730, Leon County, as recorded in our August 2026 county screen.
  6. Tree companies: our own list of 105 Leon County companies compiled 12 September 2026 from company websites, the Better Business Bureau, Expertise.com, ThreeBestRated, Houzz, Nextdoor, LawnStarter and other directories, and the FMCSA Motor Carrier Census (dataset kjg3-diqy). Companies based in Crawfordville, Havana, Quincy and Monticello were excluded.
  7. Weekly cadence, tier price, minimum job, response target, texts-per-appointment average, observed appointments per week and show rate: Your Algorithm LLC operating rules and owner-confirmed figures as of September 2026. Appointment volume and show rate are observed averages and are stated as such.

Common questions

How often do trees come down in Leon County?

Of 639 National Weather Service storm events logged for Leon County from 2015 to 2025, 458 describe trees or limbs down and 111 describe a tree landing on a house, vehicle, fence or power line. That is 15 tree-down reports per 10,000 residents, double Charleston or Savannah.

How many homes in Leon County could need tree work?

64,446 homes are owner-occupied, 53% of all occupied households, out of 122,597 households in the county, per the Census Bureau's ACS 2020-24 5-year estimates. Owner-occupied is the number that matters, because the person who decides on a removal and pays for it lives at the address.

How many tree companies work in Leon County?

105 tree companies based in the county were found on our own count, dated 12 September 2026. That is the supply side of the market this brief measures against the demand side.

How old is the housing stock under the canopy?

72,139 of the county's 137,793 housing units were built before 1990. An older house sits under an older canopy, which is what turns storm exposure into tree work rather than just wind.

Where do these numbers come from?

Households, tenure and housing age are U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2020-24 5-year estimates. Storm counts are the NOAA Storm Events Database, 2015 to 2025. The company count is our own list. The full sources and their limits are at the bottom of this page.

This brief was built by Your Algorithm from public records. We run one company per territory. If this county is yours, check whether it is still open.